The mirage Kostunica

One could say without exaggerating that the presidential, parliamentary and local elections that are to take place in Yugoslavia on the 24th of September (respectively on October 8, for the presidential elections if a second tour would be necessary) might represent a turning point in the history of the Balkans. These elections are to decide whether Slobodan Milosevici, the only dictator to hold effective power in the Balkans and in Europe, will be or will not be removed from the political stage together with the biggest source of instability in the region. Theoretically, according to the polls, Milosevici has little chance to correctly win the elections. His adversary, Vojislav Kostunica, sent in the race by an alliance of 18 opposition parties, is constantly credited by the polls with 10% or even 20% beyond the incumbent President.
The question is whether Milosevici will accept losing, both for the Serbs and for the international observers. The most common answer is "No!". Everyone expect a big electoral fraud or another diversion that permit "Slobo" to remain the strongest man in Yugoslavia.
Kostunica’s apparition on the stage found Milosevici unprepared. The Serb dictator was quite relaxed, as he was expecting Vuk Drascovici to be designed as the official candidate of the united opposition. As this one had a diminishing potential the opposition applied to some obscure character. Kostunica, a constitutional law professor, is a moderate nationalist who seems to be able to give back the Serbs the self-confidence and to restore the relationships with the rest of the world.
Kostunica does what neither Draskovici nor Djindici managed to do: he speaks Milosevici’s language and he is credible at the same time. The essential point about it is that he has never coquetted with Milosevici regime or with the communist one. Kostunica got his voters from Milosevici’s traditional "source", as he displays a moderate nationalism lacking the xenophobic, the authoritarian or the exotic emphasis of Milosevici’s nationalism.
The opposition candidate critics the NATO bombing last year, but he promises to restore the relationships with the Occident and to put an end to this isolation. He is not afraid to say that the aggressive politics of the United States helped Milosevici, in fact, to maintain in the same position.
As for the UNO administration in Kosovo, he thinks this is unjust because it favors the Albanians. "Kosovo is a Serb land" he says, promising that, in case he wins the elections, he will organize the return to this province of the thousands Serbs exiled after NATO’s arrival.
He does not acknowledge the international court that condemned Milosevici and he promises he is going to make the necessary steps to start an international suing.
Though he misses the charisma, Kostunica knows how to "seduce", telling the Serbs exactly what they want to hear about: normality, unity, reconciliation, nationalistic pride.
We could hardly affirm that Vojislav Kostunica is a liberal from the western standpoint, and yet, the Occident considers him harmless. The occidental administrations like to hope that Kostunica’s nationalism is a mostly instrumental one, meant to bring as many votes as possible from the opposite pole and that his administration would be a quite democratic one.
The political analysts think that Milosevici is going to benefit by the fact that the elections in the United States are at only 6 weeks distance from the ones in Yugoslavia. He might, thus, intervene in Montenegro hoping that it is unlikely that the USA can afford a military intervention during the electoral campaign. Moreover, several European countries NATO members seem to disagree with any other intervention resembling the one in Kosovo.
On the other hand, Milosevici knows one simple thing: he has to have the power. And nothing will stop him. He uses force unsparingly in order to harass and remove the opposition, The latest and on of the most explicit proof was the stone attack on Kostunica last week at Kosovska Miltrovica. Among the persons involved one could have recognized members of the current regime and even two police officers. The attempts, the arrestments, the searches and the brutal interventions of the police are a commonplace in the Serb ghetto. Draskovici, himself a victim of an attempt, is now resting somewhere on the beaches of Montenegro, actually abandoning the presidential candidate of his party with no support. The former President Ivan Stambolici recently disappeared in a mysterious way.
Censorship and cynic propaganda are two other constants of the Milosevici regime. This year elections are the first ones that Milosevici is about to lose. This is why an electora fraud is very likely to happen too. The first step has already been made: the "treacherous" opposition is not allowed to have observers at the polls. As there will not be international observers either, nothing is going to stop Milosevici’s men to falsify the votes counting. The Serb dictator has in his hands the whole state apparatus and a faithful clientele ready to do anything in order to keep their positions.
The elections are undoubtedly waited for, with a strange melange of explosive optimism and skepticism. The triumphalist slogan of the students – "Slobo is over!" – accompanies Kostunica’s discourses in which he expresses his fear that the elections are going to be falsified. Anything is possible: a quiet transaction of Yugoslavia to democracy, a new civil war. Unfortunately, everything is at the hands of one single person – Milosevici – and this would be difficult for us to expect him to do a wise movement.
(Adrian CIOFLANCA)