The Right limps

The poll made public on Sunday and realized by three of the most credible polling institutions fell like a bomb in the middle of the Convention. If, until recently, the percentages, situated at the limit of the necessary 10%, were arrogantly rejected by CDR 2000 leaders (the Romanian Democratic Convention) who motivated it with the lack of credibility of the coordinating institute, the data made public the day before yesterday let little space for credibility interpretation. If the CDR leaders are going to contest this poll too, then the next month elections have all chances to be lost by the political formation who have embodied the anticommunist fight for millions of Romanians, be it only for the reason that the members of the Convention have not realized yet that they are half down.
The last weeks were, indeed, very rich in polls. Institutes with pretentious names and with the general quarters in a postal box or more credible ones offered the public opinion contradictory figures, determining the well intentioned journalists to ignore them all in order to avoid any trap.
But the common initiative of the Urban and Regional Sociology Center (CURS), the Romanian Polling Institute (IRSOP) and Metro Media, three of the most credible institutions in the field take a measure that could reestablish, in general terms, the credibility of a professional poll. This is quite possible that, at a certain point in time, a certain polling institute commit the sin and, for a more or less important sum of money, make a little quality concession. But to suppose three rival institutes out of four, five at the most, credible ones in Romania agree to make together a political compromise, this is already too much. The common poll made public the day before yesterday and realized on a sample three times bigger than usually confirms, in general, many of the previous polls data: a PDSR (the Romanian Social Democracy Party) who persists in having a 50% percentage, an Iliescu a little lower than his party but detachedly in front of the top and an ApR (the Alliance for Romania) on the edge to enter the Parliament. But the news, thrilling for some people, is the percentage obtained by CDR 2000: only 7% from the vote intentions, the alliance needing at least 10% to enter the Parliament in the form under which it officially inscribed itself last week. Its adversaries would certainly enjoy a possible absence of the alliance in the Parliament. On a long run, this electoral result would have, in fact, extremely harmful consequences for all the Romanian political life. On the one hand, the political stage would remain weak and vulnerable on the right side. Let’s not forget that Romania is not Sweden, the country where social democracies have dominated with authority for years. Generally, the social democracy is welcomed when the amount of accumulated resources needs to be redistributed. But when you want to accumulate, there is only one solution: to apply right wing solutions. Our country needs, and is going to need for several more years, well-grounded liberal reforms. Under these circumstances, a political stage where the Right, be it the governing force or the opposition, is feeble is not an advantage for anybody.
On the other hand, supposing that CDR 2000 will loose its places in the Parliament, the members themselves of the rival parties have no reasons to be glad. Right now, the most likely governing alliance after the elections seems to be the one between PDSR-PNL (the National Liberal Party), with or without UDMR (the Hungarian Democratic Union in Romania). If the Convention doesn’t fulfil the electoral needed percentage, which will be the future opposition? ApR has minimum chances to obtain the limit percentage. What remains is PRM (the Big Romania Party). Let’s go further and wonder what will happen whether the future administration will fail to sensibly rise the standard of living, which is quite likely to happen? What will PRM, the potential beneficiary of most of the next dissatisfactions, do?
So, in case CDR 2000 is going to be eliminated from the political stage, there appears a huge responsibility for the future administration: to avoid the danger that Vadim Tudor and his party, essentially anti-European, become the alternative. During the mandate that is going to follow after the 2004 elections, Romania will adhere to EU or will be ready to do it, according to the present calculations of the European officials. We doubt this project could be valid in any political conjuncture. What is to be done? Difficult to say. And the more serious thing is that the CDR 2000 leaders don’t seem to be able to answer, them neither.
(Claudiu RAUS)